Bill McCord's Blog

The Administrations well meant efforts to make it possible for many homeowners to avoid foreclosure has stirred up a hornet’s nest among some media commentators.

The Plan described at http://www.makinghomeaffordable.gov/ uses up to $75 billion to provide incentives to holders of FANIE MAE and FREDDY MAC loans to work with Borrowers to refinance, or modify existing problem loans, rather than simply go ahead and foreclose.

This is a classic version of the glass ½ full, or ½ empty. Typically, in our current exclusively partisan media, the answer is dictated solely by political affiliation regardless of the facts.

This is unfortunate because there are legitimate reasons for supporting, opposing, or, better still, improving the current process.

One the one hand it is a legitimate effort to try to help Joe Public get through a situation brought about by failures in our economic systems. Given the Trillions of dollars being ploughed back to the very people who caused this situation, the $75 Billion allocated to this program is peanuts.

On the other hand there is a valid argument to be made that subsidizing refinances, or modifying problem loans, is simply putting off an inevitable final default. This can often hurt the very people it purports to help by having them use up scarce funds in a doomed attempt to save an impossible situation, rather than simply give the property back to the Lender and getting  on with life.

The December report on the status of this program provides ample ammunition for both schools of thought, and the regulators have shifted emphasis to try to deal with the problems showing up.

The summary shows that 728,000 loan modifications are already in the required trial phase. Unfortunately only 31,382 have completed that phase and have become permanent, saving homeowners an average of $550 per month. The low rate at which Trials become Permanent  is a serious problem raising concerns that a significant number of these modifications are simply allowing the Banks to delay acknowledging the number of bad loans on their books and to avoid taking the losses on to their Balance Sheets.

If that is true then the inevitable result will be a longer period of foreclosed properties coming to market as these failed modifications fall apart.

As with most things there is not a simple answer, but on balance I come down on the side of giving the program a fair shot. This is based mostly on my view that given the countless billions we have poured into supporting the financial institutions that caused the problems,  a little effort to give similar assistance to the victims is not unreasonable.

The Fed and the Crisis

For anyone wishing to understand what the Federal Reserve actually did, and will continue to do in dealing with our current financial problems, here is a link to a San Francisco Fed web site where you will find a goldmine of facts and commentary. http://www.frbsf.org/econanswers/

It’s a great resource dealing with the process of digging out of the hole and getting back on track.

Maybe one day they will do an equally good job on their failure to prevent all this from happening. As far as I can see they did not have the courage to take away the cookie jar when this Bubble was so obviously getting seriously inflated.

Turns out that Mr. Greenspan really let us down by failing to spell out what was happening, and take the risk of being unpopular with his Political Masters. Like many before him he seemed to buy into the “New Paradigm” myth. Remember that phrase during the run up to the Dot Com bust.

This is a great time to refinance into a long term fixed rate mortgage, but it’s not always obvious how to do it in order to ensure the best combination of interest rate and costs, specifically Points. 
For example, the lowest rate is not automatically the best deal. This depends greatly on how long you plan to stay in the property.
My rule of thumb is if you expect to be moving within 5 years go for the lowest cost you can get and accept a higher rate for that short period.
If you expect to live there for more than 5 years pay some of the costs up front in order to get the lowest rate for many more years.
Next, take your preferred strategy to 4 different possible Lenders:
1. Your current Lender.
2. A local Credit Union.
3. A good Mortgage Broker.
4. A Major retail Bank i.e. BofA etc.
Ask each to give you a quote based on your situation. If you are not asked how long you plan to stay  in your  house get up, walk away, and go look for a professional.
One more thought. If tempted by an online or other mortgage advert, good luck, but be wary of the very common bait and Switch tactics often used in this business.
And last but not least, be aware that APR is a very flexible statistic which can be manipulated and interpreted in numerous ways. It is not a valid way to sellect a mortgage.

In the world of smoke and mirrors called “The Finance System” the word PRIME has two very different meanings.

One is PRIME RATE (the interest rate banks charge their best clients. Normally 3% above Fed Funds Rate.

The other is SUB-PRIME to describe a mortgage (SUB-PRIME MORTGAGE) that should never have made. Hence the “The Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis“.

In the real world occupied by most of us “Ordinary Folk” the term Sub-Prime should not be linked to a Mortgage; It actually refers to the Borrower of the Mortgage i.e. The person whose Credit, Income, and/or Cash for down payment is not good enough to get a ”Prime” Mortgage. Hereafter referred to as The Sub-Prime Borrower.

This person has always been with us. Until the unbridled greed and avarice of Banks and Wall St intervened with their “No Possible Homebuyer Left behind” programs these folks rented until such time as their financial situation allowed them to qualify for a sensible mortgage.

Let’s be clear on this. The Sub-Prime Mortgages were and are High Risk loans made to High Risk people. These loans could only be made if the Bank knew it could sell them on to a 3rd party before the inevitable late payments started. This way the Banks got their profit with effectively no responsibility for the future performance of the flakey loan.

It was effectively a game of “Pass the Parcel in a Bagdad Pub”.

By the time these loans started going bad they had spread throughout the Worlds Financial systems leading to the current situation so often referred to as the Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis.

At the end of the day we have a large number of Banks and other Wall Street hot shots who  made enormous profits by selling what they all knew to be an unstable product to an undereducated public.

This is a recurring story in our history.

If you don’t want to become a victim of the next wave then you need to get educated in how the system really works before you meet the next Bernie Madoff.

For some thoughts on how you might do this check out my posts from 04/25/2008 “Kick Start the Kids”.

A small but very welcome glow of sanity from a historically well run Bank.

After acquiring $117.3 billion dollars worth of option adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) in its acquisition of Wachovia last year, banking giant Wells Fargo is now practicing a rare but effective loan modification strategy: the cramdown.

Through September of this year, Wells Fargo has forgiven an average of $46,000 on approximately 43,500 high-risk loans in its portfolio. The typical debt reduction is around 20% of the loan principal, though in rare cases Wells Fargo has cut as much as 30%. Reports put the six-month default rate of loans modified by Wells Fargo at 15-20%, less than half the current rate of 40% suffered by the rest of industry’s extend-and-pretend modifications.

Debt reduction is only one of many tools Wells Fargo is using to aid its distressed borrowers, and is currently not being used as a blanket fix for all underwater homeowners.

My Opinion: While this is a national story and certainly only a very small slice of the current problem pie, a mortgage lender taking into account the need for principal reduction is a big acknowledgement that the underwater state of many homeowners’ mortgages require this type of treatment. This is something other lenders and Congress need to understand when considering the mortgage quandary. Continuing to “kick the can down the road” with “extend and pretend” modifications will do nothing to solve the massive negative equity problem. The fact that the small glimmers of hope — in the form of cramdowns — are coming from a lender and not the regulators really speaks to the hands-tied, head-buried-in-the-sand mentality which must be overcome if we are to move ahead with a recovery.

Re: Wells Fargo Cuts as Much as 30 Percent in Principal from the Wall Street Journal

An increasing number of Listings are stating that they will not accept offers from FHA or V/A Buyers.

When questioned the Agents usually claim that these loans impose additional costs on the Seller. This was true up till a few years ago, but no longer. In fact, they have a huge advantage in today’s world.

 When questioned they claim that these loan impose additional costs on the Seller. This was true up till a few years ago, but no longer. In fact, these loans have a huge advantage in today’s world.

The following explains why this is so:

First a little clarification regarding current appraisal procedures is required.

1. As of July 2009,  for all Conventional loans, the selection of the appraiser is governed by the much despised HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct) guidelines from Fannie Mae. These require that no-one involved in the transaction has any control over the appraiser chosen. This must be done by a 3rd party Appraisal Management Company (A.M.A.) who will collect the full cost of the appraisal plus some profit for themselves. There are no requirements regarding the qualifications of the chosen appraiser except for having the required state license. As the A.M.A. gets to keep the full amount of the appraisal fee, they have a strong interest in giving the job to the lowest bidder regardless of where they live and work, or whether they have any knowledge of the market conditions where the property is located. In recent times I have had one appraiser come from Tracy to value a property in the Hayward Hills, and another come in from Benicia to Tracy. In both cases they brought in a valuation 20% lower than the agreed purchase price and blew the deal away. Both prpoerties went back on the market and closed with FHA Loans using a local appraisor.

2. For Government Loans (FHA, V/A) the appraiser can still be selected by the Lender, The agent, or the Buyer as has always been the case. This ensures that the appraiser will be local to the property and therefore have current knowledge of the neighborhood in which the property is located.

Result is that the appraiser can be selected on their merits and qualifications, rather than based on how cheaply they agree to do the job.

NOTE: There are a limited number of circumstance where FHA & V/A loans cannot be used due to the short time between the last time the property sold and the current date. These a typically “Flippers” bought at foreclosure sales, quickly updated, and put back on the market for an easy profit.

This situation is currently the subject of Bills in both houses of Congress and will most certainly result in new guidelines resulting from law, not in response to pressure from one politicslly motivated State Attorney running for Govenor.

Why do I make more money in December than any other Month of the Year? and why do I expect this year to be even better.
Here’s why.

1. Most Realtors think this is a slow time and choose to take more time off. RESULT; less competition.

2. There are fewer Listings and fewer Buyers, but those who are active  are serious. RESULT; more productive use of time.

But this year things are very different. There will still be fewer Agents working and fewer Buyers looking, BUT there will be many more Listings to choose from.

WHY? Because we will still have all the normal Sellers who are serious, PLUS a large number of REO Properties which are not affected by the holidays. Banks know that each day they own a property costs them a lot of money so they will be putting them on the market as soon as they can regardless of the time of year.

So why be a Buyer now? Because you will have less competition but more properties to choose from. (Not to mention the extended and improved Tax Credit Program).

The rumours and speculation surrounding this Bill are getting increasingly shrill and uninformed ranging from:

1. Extension of the credit is a done deal and will possibly even increase the amount to $15,000.

2. It will be changed to apply to deals that are in escrow before the current Nov 31st deadline and close within 60 days more.

3. It’s dead as of Nov 31st.

4. Etc, etc,etc.

The best site i’ve found for intelligent discussion of this is http://www.californiateachersandemployeeshomeloanprograms.com/update-8000-homebuyer-tax-credit-extension-october-2009/

Scott is a very diligent researcher and reporter on this and more generally 1st time buyer programs.

At the low end of the Santa Clara and Alameda Counties single family home market ($300-$400k) I’ve got used to having to make multiple offers ror each Buyer before getting a deal

I’ve also noticed this creeping up to the $400-$450k market.

However, until last week there was no sign of the same thing happening at higher price levels in the more “up scale” neighborhoods.

Here’s what just happened just 10 days ago

Fri 9:30 I enter a nice new Cambrian listing for $665,000 and schedule for the following weeks Campbell/Cambrian Broker Tour.

Sat Open House has 35 groups of people through.

Sun Open House had 29 more.

By noon Monday I’d received 3 excellent offers and we had accepted a full price clean one.

Early afternoon I get a call from the organizer of the Brokers Tour telling me that the tour had been canceled as all the scheduled properties had sold over the weekend and I would have been the only property to tour. I was actually sitting at my keyboard to update to a Pending Status, so in fact there were no new listings left to tour.

Is this a onetime situation, or a harbinger of calmer waters coming fast?

If you live in Silicon Valley and are thinking about buying your 1^st house this is probably the best ever time to do so. 

1. Santa Clara County has a new 1st time buyer program which gives a 30 year, $40,000, Down Payment Assistance loan at 2% interest, with no payments required for the 1st 4 years. After 5 years the interest rate becomes ZERO. The maximum total interest over the life of the loan can never exceed $3,200. THIS IS FANTASTIC. 

2. 90% of the Cities in Santa Clara County have one or more special 1^st First Time Buyer programs to help get a foot on the Home Ownership ladder. 

3. Federal Government and the State of California have several different 1^st Time Buyer programs. 

4. Many of these programs can be combined to provide affordable ways for the majority of people who at present believe they can’t afford to buy. 

5. The Santa Clara County Association of Realtors has a new program which will provide 6 monthly payments of up to $1,500 per month for a Home Buyer who loses their job. 

6. The IRS is giving an $8,000 Tax Credit to any 1st time Buyer who buys before Nov 31st this year. This is a CREDIT not an allowance. It means that even if total Fed Tax was $6,000, not only would that be wiped out but you would get an additional $2,000 rebate. That’s an $8,000 gift from Uncle Sam. 

In addition to all this Mortgage Interest Rates remain at historically low levels, while home prices have come down substantially from the peaks of 2007. 

There will never be a better time than this for that 1^st purchase.