Bill McCord's Blog

Low Credit Scores accounted for one third of all of mortgage loan applications made across the country during September being turned down.

Borrowers with credit scores under 620 were refused even when they had down payments up to 25%. According to myFICO.com this minimum requirement eliminates 29.3% of the population who might wish to get a mortgage.

Note: While FHA will insure loans to otherwise well qualified borrowers with lower scores, the Banks will not make such loans.

Meanwhile, the lowest interest rates went to mortgage borrowers who were among the 47 percent of Americans with excellent credit scores of 720 or above.

In the first half of September, borrowers with credit scores of 720 or above got an average low annual percentage rate (APR) of 4.3 percent for conventional 30-year fixed mortgages. Borrowers with mid-range credit scores between 620 and 719 received APRs between 4.44 and 4.73 percent, with the APR rising as credit score drops. Those with credit scores below 620 received too few loan quotes to calculate average low APR.

The message is very clear. A poor credit score is expensive even if you can get a Mortgage.

The new FICO® 8 Score is fast becoming the new standard. It has already been adopted by over 3,000 banks and other financial institutions.

But is it good news or bad news for you as a consumer?

Their are multiple small changes but the two I see as the most significant are:

1. Multiple late payments will now carry a heavier penalty than in the past. These are the 30, 60, 90 day lates that show up under “Derogatory” accounts.

2. The penalties for using too much of any credit are increased. If you have any type of credit with a maximum amount available your score will be lowered if you owe  more than 30% of the total maximum allowed. This can be your VISA or Sears card, or a Home Equity Line of Credit. NOTE.

 This applies even if it is a company credit card in your name.

The result of these changes can mean your credit score can be lowered even if you never had a late payment in your life. Too much credit availability is a no-no. This will apply most frequently when applying for a mortgage, when the bank will assume your total debt to be the maximum amount of money you can get at with just your signature.

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) took aggressive steps during 2009 and early 2010 to drive mortgage interest rates down in order to encourage more people to buy homes and revive the real estate industry.

To understand how they did this we need to know what actually controls mortgage interest rates for the home buyer.

 It is the price of Mortgage Backed Bonds (MMB’s)and NOTHING else. The bulk of these are created by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac who buy your mortgage from the Bank or Mortgage Broker who originally made it. They then package hundreds of mortgages together as a Bond and sell it off to private investors (Pension and Insurance companies are typical buyers). The proceeds from the sale are used to buy new mortgages from the Banks and Brokers. This virtuous circle is the motor that drives the Real Estate market.

The Private Investors stopped buying when they realized that a lot of the individual mortgages inside the Bonds were badly designed (Sub-Prime) and payments from were less reliable than they had been told.

When investors stop buying MMB’s the Mortgage Lenders have no money to lend and the Real Estate Market freezes up.

One solution would have been to increase the interest rate on new mortgages in order to offer a higher rate to the investors to compensate for the higher risk. In normal times this is how the market works. In the current circumstances the Investors were not going to buy at any price.

In early 2009 the Fed came to the rescue to avoid a total shut down of the housing market. They began buying these MMB’s in huge numbers and aaccepted very low interest rates. This restored the supply of money available to make new mortgages at historically low rates, and stabilized the whole residential real estate industry.

These Fed purchases have been completed and the challenge now is to attract Private Investors back as buyers for MBB’s. They are there, but will not accept the low rates that the Fed did. Therefore the interest rates paid to get a mortgage will have to go up.

Potential Buyers need to be getting serious if they want to take advantage of these historically low rates.

 

Rep. Maxine Waters [D-CA35] recently introduced H.R. 5072,The FHA Reform Act of 2010 which would impose hugely increased monthly payments on anyone buying a home with an FHA insured loan. This is a large majority of all 1st Time Buyers.

Already, effective from April 5th, the upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium was increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, (a 29% increase).

Now, in a further attack on the 1st Time Buyer, this misguided lady proposes a 300% increase on the ongoing monthly Mortgage Insurance payment.

To understand the impact of this consider a new $300,000 purchase with a 30 year fixed FHA loan.at 5.5% interest rate. The monthly payment will go from $1,804 up to $2,051. An increase of 12%.

Put another way; If the maximum you could qualify for was $300,000 before, it would now be only $270,000.

At one fell stroke this bill would eliminate an enormous number of willing buyers at the bottom end of the market.

When you consider that each 1st Time Buyer potentially creates a move up Buyer we can’t afford  this kind of interference in this very fragile recovery.

Here is another dynamite program for 1st time home buyers.

Details here are for Santa Clara County but other Counties and Cities also operatate these programs.

The County of Santa Clara has been awarded a new MCC Allocation in the amount of $3,031,944.

This award should serve approximately 70 Households.

MCC Applications will be accepted beginning February 12, 2010, until the allocation is depleted.

MCC PROGRAM: The Mortgage Credit Certificate Program is available for first-time home-buyer’s purchasing their first home in participating cities in Santa Clara County. The Mortgage Credit Certificate Program gives first-time home-buyer’s a federal income tax credit of up to 15% of the interest paid on their first mortgage loan each year the home-buyer keeps the same mortgage loan and lives in the same property as their primary residence.

The Maximum Income Limits for 2010:

Effective February 12, 2010:

1 or 2 person household = $102,500

3 or more person household = $117,875

The Maximum Purchase Price Limits are:

Resale/Existing Units = $570,000 and for,

Newly Constructed Units= $630,000

FICO scores measure the risk that an individual will default by evaluating their history of credit management. The exact formulas used are top secret but FICO has given the following components and the approximate importance of each:

35%- Payment History. Late payment bills such as Mortgage, Credit Cards, Car loans etc will lower a person’s FICO score to drop. Paying bill as agreed over time will improve the score.

30% – Credit Utilization. The ratio of current revolving debt (Credit Card and Charge Account balances) to the total available credit (Credit Limits). Consumers can improve their FICO scores by paying off debt and reducing balances to less than 50% of the available credit. Closing existing revolving charge accounts can have a negative effect on this ratio and lower your score. Before closing accounts be sure to do some more research, or get qualified advice.

15% – Length of Credit History. Time improves FICO scores without any action other than paying all bills on time.

10% – Types of Credit Used. FICO scores are improved by having a record of good history of managing multiple types of credit (Installment, Revolving, Consumer finance etc).

10% – Recent Credit Applications. Multiple requests to obtain new credit over a short period of time can hurt an individual’s FICO score. However, individuals shopping for the best rate for a Mortgage or Auto Loan over a short period will not see any negative impact on a FICO score. All such enquiries will be counted as just one.

http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/

There are many different Business Models in the Real Estate Industry. Here’s just a few examples:

1. Buyer Only Brokers.

2. Buyer Rebate (Kick Back) Brokers.

3. Virtual Office Brokers. No physical location.

4. Reduced Commision Brokers.

5. Fixed Price Brokers.

6. Transaction Facilitation Brokers.

Etc, etc.etc ad infinitum.

All of these and many more are proof that we have a lot of competition in our business, and that the Consumer (Buyer or Seller) has lots of choices.

I won’t try to explain the pro’s and con’s of any of these options, but will strongly suggest that whichever of them you choose you  strongly consider working with a REALTOR.

My reason for this specific advice is as follows:

1. There are more than Half a Million Licensed Real Estate Agents in California. This is the minimum required qualification for the job.

2. Only 165,000 of them are REALTORS who have voluntarily agreed to subscribe to a strict Code of Ethics, and are paying members of their Local, State, and National Associations of Realtors.

Amongst many other services Realtors provide to the public is the web site Realtor.com. the most popular of all on-line Real Estate sites. Check out http://www.realtor.com/.

Mortgage interest rate have remainded at historically low levels for longer than we can remember. This has not been an accident. The largest factor has been the Federal Reserve program under which they have bought about $1.25 TRILLION of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS’s) on the open market.

 MBSs are simply BONDS. Their prices go up and down based on our old friends Supply and Demand. As with all Bonds,  when   pricies go up the Interest Rate on them goes down, and vise-versa.

So in order to see where Mortgage Interest Rates are going we simply track the prices of the Bonds known as MBS’s.

You can safely ignore the uninformed pundits of the media repeating the ridiculous mantra that Mortgage interes rates are driven by the 10 year Treasury. The MBS’s deal only with Mortgages. The 10 year Treasury is an indicator of the entire U.S. financial system and will often point in the opposite direction to the MBS market.

Now let’s come back to the $1.25 Trillion worth of MBS’s bought by the Federal Reserve as part of the Governments Financial Stimulus program. Having this much money looking to buy MBS’s (DEMAND) has artificially kept the price of them up, and as a result kept Mortgage Interest Rates down. As of the last day of March this program is finished. Now there is a reduced demand for MBS’s and an inevitable inrease in Mortgage Interest Rates.

This will begin to happen right away and continue until the market stabilizes at the level dictated by regular market forces. This will be at a higher rate than we are at now.

For an excellent summary of this process check out the following link 

http://www.mortgagesuccesssource.com/ezine.php?ez=1003

The lesson here is that if you want to become a homeowner it’s time to get serious before these rate increases get too far away from what you can afford.

I won’t try to explain the pro’s and con’s of any of these options, but will strongly suggest that whichever of them you choose, you consider working with a REALTOR. My reason for this specific advice is as follows:

 

1. There are more than Half a Million Licensed Real Estate Agents in California. This is the minimum required qualification for the job.

2. Only 165,000 of them are REALTORS who have voluntarily agreed to subscribe to a strict Code of Ethics, and are paying members of their Local, State, and National Associations of Realtors.

Amongst many other services Realtors provide to the public is the web site Realtor.com. the most popular of all on-line Real Estate sites. Check out http://www.realtor.com/.