Bill McCord's Blog

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) took aggressive steps during 2009 and early 2010 to drive mortgage interest rates down in order to encourage more people to buy homes and revive the real estate industry.

To understand how they did this we need to know what actually controls mortgage interest rates for the home buyer.

 It is the price of Mortgage Backed Bonds (MMB’s)and NOTHING else. The bulk of these are created by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac who buy your mortgage from the Bank or Mortgage Broker who originally made it. They then package hundreds of mortgages together as a Bond and sell it off to private investors (Pension and Insurance companies are typical buyers). The proceeds from the sale are used to buy new mortgages from the Banks and Brokers. This virtuous circle is the motor that drives the Real Estate market.

The Private Investors stopped buying when they realized that a lot of the individual mortgages inside the Bonds were badly designed (Sub-Prime) and payments from were less reliable than they had been told.

When investors stop buying MMB’s the Mortgage Lenders have no money to lend and the Real Estate Market freezes up.

One solution would have been to increase the interest rate on new mortgages in order to offer a higher rate to the investors to compensate for the higher risk. In normal times this is how the market works. In the current circumstances the Investors were not going to buy at any price.

In early 2009 the Fed came to the rescue to avoid a total shut down of the housing market. They began buying these MMB’s in huge numbers and aaccepted very low interest rates. This restored the supply of money available to make new mortgages at historically low rates, and stabilized the whole residential real estate industry.

These Fed purchases have been completed and the challenge now is to attract Private Investors back as buyers for MBB’s. They are there, but will not accept the low rates that the Fed did. Therefore the interest rates paid to get a mortgage will have to go up.

Potential Buyers need to be getting serious if they want to take advantage of these historically low rates.

 

Here’s one more example of a Bank pretending to do something positive about loans to defaulting Sub-Prime borrowers, while actually increasing their payments.

While 90% of mortgage lenders resist  handing out any type of loan modifications, despite being advised and even pressured by the government to do so, Bank of America claims it is now taking the lead. The initial B of A model seeks to conditionally (read: unlikely) cut up to 30% off the principal of 45,000 home mortgages nationally. Note: This is not the same as a reduced payment.

This program is very limited in breadth and scope. It applies only to those homeowners with negative amortizing ARM’s.  The principal reduction program will not be available to underwater homeowners with fixed rate mortgages or ARMs with amortized payment schedules. B of A claims their goal is to reduce homeowners’ monthly payments to an amount equal to 31% of their household income – the parameter set by the federal government two years ago, in 2008, based on long-standing fundamentals of mortgage lending.

In practise this program will apply only a few of the loans B of A inherited when it took over Countyrywide; specifically (negative amortization loans), where the Borrower is at least 60 days late!!

A more important problem is that the proposed modifications will usually result in a HIGHER MONTHLY PAYMENT for people already unable to make the current minimal payment.

For a delailed analysis of this Public Relations Excercise check http://blog.firsttuesdayjournal.com/2010/04/lenders-attempt-to-lock-homeowners-into-paying-underwater-homes/

I am expecting that one of the major tax breaks in the nation will be hit by our elected representatives once they get back to running the Country (After the Fall elections).

Our dangerous levels of Public Debt are going to have to be dealt with and The Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction is an obvious and inevitable target.

Even as I type this I can hear the screams of “No Way” they’d never dare touch it.

Having lived through the British “phase out” of mortgage tax relief, and observed it’s results, I am convinced that this unfair tax break will soon join the Dodo, and our society will be the better for it’s going; Indeed, the process has already started, as limits on the total dollar amounts, and number of properties eligible have already been implemented over the past few years. Not all at one go, but little by little, so that in a few years it will, just like the smile on the face of the “Cheshire Cat,”  have totally faded away.

What we currently tell our taxpayers is that if they agree to take on one particular type of debt ( a mortgage) we will lower their taxes. If not we will have to increase their income taxes to make up for what we are losing to their more affluent fellow citizens i.e. Mortgage holders.

Is it good to have a high level of home ownership YES. Should it be done by this type of Social Engineering (Socialism) NO.

Could it be posible that one or more of our currently troubled States might be the 1st to take this path?? Perhaps the one that put in that other masterpiece of tax malpractice, Prop 13.

Rep. Maxine Waters [D-CA35] recently introduced H.R. 5072,The FHA Reform Act of 2010 which would impose hugely increased monthly payments on anyone buying a home with an FHA insured loan. This is a large majority of all 1st Time Buyers.

Already, effective from April 5th, the upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium was increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, (a 29% increase).

Now, in a further attack on the 1st Time Buyer, this misguided lady proposes a 300% increase on the ongoing monthly Mortgage Insurance payment.

To understand the impact of this consider a new $300,000 purchase with a 30 year fixed FHA loan.at 5.5% interest rate. The monthly payment will go from $1,804 up to $2,051. An increase of 12%.

Put another way; If the maximum you could qualify for was $300,000 before, it would now be only $270,000.

At one fell stroke this bill would eliminate an enormous number of willing buyers at the bottom end of the market.

When you consider that each 1st Time Buyer potentially creates a move up Buyer we can’t afford  this kind of interference in this very fragile recovery.

Here is another dynamite program for 1st time home buyers.

Details here are for Santa Clara County but other Counties and Cities also operatate these programs.

The County of Santa Clara has been awarded a new MCC Allocation in the amount of $3,031,944.

This award should serve approximately 70 Households.

MCC Applications will be accepted beginning February 12, 2010, until the allocation is depleted.

MCC PROGRAM: The Mortgage Credit Certificate Program is available for first-time home-buyer’s purchasing their first home in participating cities in Santa Clara County. The Mortgage Credit Certificate Program gives first-time home-buyer’s a federal income tax credit of up to 15% of the interest paid on their first mortgage loan each year the home-buyer keeps the same mortgage loan and lives in the same property as their primary residence.

The Maximum Income Limits for 2010:

Effective February 12, 2010:

1 or 2 person household = $102,500

3 or more person household = $117,875

The Maximum Purchase Price Limits are:

Resale/Existing Units = $570,000 and for,

Newly Constructed Units= $630,000

FICO scores measure the risk that an individual will default by evaluating their history of credit management. The exact formulas used are top secret but FICO has given the following components and the approximate importance of each:

35%- Payment History. Late payment bills such as Mortgage, Credit Cards, Car loans etc will lower a person’s FICO score to drop. Paying bill as agreed over time will improve the score.

30% – Credit Utilization. The ratio of current revolving debt (Credit Card and Charge Account balances) to the total available credit (Credit Limits). Consumers can improve their FICO scores by paying off debt and reducing balances to less than 50% of the available credit. Closing existing revolving charge accounts can have a negative effect on this ratio and lower your score. Before closing accounts be sure to do some more research, or get qualified advice.

15% – Length of Credit History. Time improves FICO scores without any action other than paying all bills on time.

10% – Types of Credit Used. FICO scores are improved by having a record of good history of managing multiple types of credit (Installment, Revolving, Consumer finance etc).

10% – Recent Credit Applications. Multiple requests to obtain new credit over a short period of time can hurt an individual’s FICO score. However, individuals shopping for the best rate for a Mortgage or Auto Loan over a short period will not see any negative impact on a FICO score. All such enquiries will be counted as just one.
 http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/

There are many suggestions being made as to how best to deal with homeowners in trouble with their mortgage payment. Some are constructive and worth pushing for. Others are not.

One of these is the proposal to allow a bankruptcy judge to force a bank to reduce the Pincipal amount of the mortgage. This is called a “cram down”.

Rather than giving this power of “Cram Down” to bankrupcy courts” (most “distressed” homeowners do not, and will not want to go the bankrupcy path), I’d rather see the Real Estate and Media industries praising and fighting for the Wells Fargo strategy for dealing with their Wachovia inheritance.

They are actively using Principal Reduction “Cram Down” along with Loan Modification strategies, usually  together, to provide long term solutions to many of their defaulting loans.

With a long history of prudent and pragmatic lending policies Wells Fargo are an excellent example of what the banks could and should be doing to make it possible for responsible homeowners to stay in their homes. By lowering the loan amount and interest rate they minimize the larger loss which they would take in a foreclosure or short sale.

 the short sighted strategies being used by the majority of other banks with similar problems are best described as  re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

Is it a good idea to pay off a mortgage as soon as possible. My answer 90% of the time will be NO. It may make you feel good but it is economically foolish for the vast majority of people.

A mortgage is the cheapest form of debt for the average homeowner. This is partly because it has a low interest rate, but also brings with it enormous tax benefits. For most people this lowers the actual interest rate by more than a third. The real after tax rate on a 5.5% mortgage is actually 3.625%.

The vast majority of consumer debt is much higher than this. It seems clear to me that no one should be trying to pay off the mortgage with money which would be far better used to pay off a credit card.

Another major consideration should be whether tying up more money in your house is good for your on-going financial security. Once you make that payment you can never get it back without either selling or refinancing the house. Unless you have enough other assetts to handle job loss or other family emergencies you would probably be better served by investing that money where you can quickly get at it in such circumstances.

For a more detailed conversation on this topic check the following link to the New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/20/your-money/mortgages/20money.html?ref=realestate

Mortgage interest rate have remainded at historically low levels for longer than we can remember. This has not been an accident. The largest factor has been the Federal Reserve program under which they have bought about $1.25 TRILLION of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS’s) on the open market.

 MBSs are simply BONDS. Their prices go up and down based on our old friends Supply and Demand. As with all Bonds,  when   pricies go up the Interest Rate on them goes down, and vise-versa.

So in order to see where Mortgage Interest Rates are going we simply track the prices of the Bonds known as MBS’s.

You can safely ignore the uninformed pundits of the media repeating the ridiculous mantra that Mortgage interes rates are driven by the 10 year Treasury. The MBS’s deal only with Mortgages. The 10 year Treasury is an indicator of the entire U.S. financial system and will often point in the opposite direction to the MBS market.

Now let’s come back to the $1.25 Trillion worth of MBS’s bought by the Federal Reserve as part of the Governments Financial Stimulus program. Having this much money looking to buy MBS’s (DEMAND) has artificially kept the price of them up, and as a result kept Mortgage Interest Rates down. As of the last day of March this program is finished. Now there is a reduced demand for MBS’s and an inevitable inrease in Mortgage Interest Rates.

This will begin to happen right away and continue until the market stabilizes at the level dictated by regular market forces. This will be at a higher rate than we are at now.

For an excellent summary of this process check out the following link 

http://www.mortgagesuccesssource.com/ezine.php?ez=1003

The lesson here is that if you want to become a homeowner it’s time to get serious before these rate increases get too far away from what you can afford.

 FICO scores measure the risk that an individual will default by evaluating their history of credit management. The exact formulas used are top secret but FICO has given the following components and the approximate importance of each:

35%- Payment History. Late payments of bills such as Mortgage, Credit Cards, Car loans etc will lower a person’s FICO score . Paying bills as agreed over time will improve the score.

30% – Credit Utilization. The ratio of current revolving debt (Credit Card and Charge Account balances) to the total available credit (Credit Limits). Consumers can improve their FICO scores by paying off debt and reducing balances to less than 50% of the available credit. Closing existing revolving charge accounts can have a negative effect on this ratio, and lower your score. Before closing accounts be sure to do some more research, or get qualified advice.

15% – Length of Credit History. Time improves FICO scores without any action other than paying all bills on time.

10% – Types of Credit Used. FICO scores are improved by having a good history of managing multiple types of credit (Installment, Revolving, Consumer finance etc).

10% – Recent Credit Applications. Multiple requests to obtain new credit over a short period of time can hurt an individual’s FICO score. However, individuals shopping for the best rate for a Mortgage or Auto Loan over a short period will not see any negative impact on a FICO score.

For more detail on this and other Credit Related questions the following link is a Gold Mine of factual information.
 http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/